"We know quite a lot about how Ukrainian refugees are faring in Norway, thanks in no small part to research conducted by NIBR. However, we know less about what needs to happen on the Ukrainian side for them to choose to return to their homeland," says Jørn Holm-Hansen.
He is a researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research (NIBR) at Oslo Metropolitan University, and the leader of a new project funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Together with colleagues from NIBR, Holm-Hansen will examine what influences Ukrainian refugees' decision to voluntarily return to Ukraine.
"The question is important, and something that both Ukrainian authorities and remaining residents are concerned about. Without a significant number of those who have left returning, it will be more challenging to rebuild the country," says Holm-Hansen.
Record number of refugees
Just under seven million Ukrainians have fled the country since Russia's major invasion in February 2022. Almost all have settled in Europe, where they have received temporary, collective protection.
Ukrainians in Norway now make up more than one and a half percent of the entire population.
In light of the large number of Ukrainian refugees in European countries, the question of lasting solutions is crucial, both in Ukraine and for the European host countries.
"The situation with millions of people under temporary collective protection has significant costs. This primarily affects the refugees themselves, of course, but there are also substantial expenses for the host countries. And in the long term, Ukraine will struggle economically if people do not return," says Holm-Hansen, adding:
"This challenge is even greater as Ukraine also experience people leaving to become labor migrants during peacetime."
Increased focus on return
Holm-Hansen will investigate which factors in Ukraine influence Ukrainians when they decide to return voluntarily.
"It is important to look more closely at the experiences of those who have returned. How do they perceive the support they receive from public agencies and through international programs? Are there signs of stigmatization or inclusion of returning refugees, especially those who have received financial support?" he says.
A Ministry of Unity has been established in Ukraine, which will work with refugees and returnees. The ministry emphasizes developing measures for security, jobs, and housing for those who return.
"We will investigate whether such measures contribute to people deciding to return. We will also examine how Ukrainian authorities view the challenge of labor migration to Europe and the possibility that refugees may obtain residence based on work permits," says Holm-Hansen.
Additionally, the researchers will analyze media discourse, community reactions, and whether how authorities talk about return influences the decision to go back.
The project is set to be completed before the summer of 2025.
